Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 051942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



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