Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 062206
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 PM MST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BLOW AS A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FLAGSTAFF WEST ON FRIDAY AND TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN AZ
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPS AND DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS AZ. ON
FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN AZ. 30-50% CHC`S OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST
TO AROUND FLAGSTAFF BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FROM FLAGSTAFF WEST LATE FRIDAY AND THEN
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AZ BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL AND FORECAST QPF
ARE FROM 0.05 -0.20 INCH LIQUID AND AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN WESTERN
AZ MAY SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...AND SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION.

CLEARING MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BRINGING WITH
IT FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY - WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THUR AFTERNOON ALONG THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU. SURFACE WINDS SW 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES IN. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION....CLM
FIRE WEATHER...CLM


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