Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 050422
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AS PER THE
KFWS WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE. WE ANTICIPATE THAT LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO BETWEEN 08
AND 09Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 10Z. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFT
ABOVE 3000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY EVENING ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP
AGAIN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT A FEW MAY MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DRY MID LEVELS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR US. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA HAVE HELPED PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND END UP OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. THIS PATTERN HAS PUT NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AS SUCH...WILL
YIELD AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EVERY DAY DURING THE
NEXT 6 DAYS...AND GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN IN THE 60S
OVERNIGHT AND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DURING THE DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES TOMORROW...
WILL HELP PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFT AND INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS
ADDED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SPECIFICALLY...PWATS NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE
PRESENT...AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 TO 7 C/KM...AND WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY...THESE INGREDIENTS COULD RESULT
IN SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CELLS. THE CURRENT THINKING
REGARDING THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HAS THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE...TO DALLAS...TO
BONHAM LINE...WHICH IS AN AREA THAT COULD LIKELY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BAND OF CONVECTION
SETTING UP ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS IS AN AREA THAT HAS SEEN BETWEEN 6 AND 12
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...SOME OF IT WITHIN THE PAST
WEEK AND A HALF. WITH SOILS ALREADY PRETTY SATURATED...IT WOULD
NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...A WATCH
HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS POINT THOUGH BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CWA IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME. MORE THAN LIKELY...THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM BUT WOULD HELP PRIME THE AREA FOR FLOODING LATER ON
IN THE WEEK. MANY LAKES AND STREAMS IN OUR EASTERN CWA ARE ALREADY
PRETTY FULL...SO A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH AN STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA...GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED PUSH THE DRYLINE FURTHER
EAST...POTENTIALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA AND BRING A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BACK INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S DURING THE DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  80  65  81  67 /  20  40  70  50  30
WACO, TX              62  79  65  81  67 /  20  40  50  40  20
PARIS, TX             61  77  63  78  64 /  10  40  60  50  30
DENTON, TX            61  79  64  80  66 /  20  40  70  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          60  77  64  79  66 /  20  40  70  50  30
DALLAS, TX            64  80  66  80  67 /  20  40  70  50  30
TERRELL, TX           63  77  65  80  66 /  20  40  60  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         64  78  65  81  66 /  20  40  50  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            63  81  65  82  67 /  20  40  50  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  78  64  81  66 /  20  50  70  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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