Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 281148
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
548 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE UPPER
HALF OF THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...FROM CRAIG TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY FALL BELOW 1 MILE. IF THIS
OCCURS...IT SHOULD HAPPEN DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

A RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PUSHING
DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST CO. MOISTURE FROM THE
LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS
WILL FOCUS OVER SW CO IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A BAND OF LESSER MOISTURE WILL STRETCH NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CO MTS. THE NAM12 SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY
THIS SYSTEM. THESE WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...
THE FLATTOPS AND THE CENTRAL CO MTS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

THE SW U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER AND DRIER. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MTS OF NE
UT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES NORTH OF COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT DOES DRAG ACROSS THE NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...NOT QUITE MAKING IT TO THE I70 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MUCH OF REGION STAYS DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHALLOW COLD/STATIONARY FRONT STAYS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED FOR DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS.
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HUGGING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.

MONDAY...THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL REINFORCE THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SWRN
MOUNTAINS OF WRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KASE AND KTEX
AIRFIELDS. KTEX STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH CIGS FALLING
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF A BRIEF
SHOWER DRIFTING OVER THE KEGE/KDRO AIRFIELDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING BETWEEN 01Z-03Z.

VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS. CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.