Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 281341
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
941 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ASSERT MORE CONTROL
OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP FOR TODAY
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE 12Z KGYX RAOB. GIVEN CURRENT
WIND GUSTS...I ELECTED TO ADD CASCO BAY TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
POPS... WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LOWERED DEW POINTS TO ALLOW FOR THE
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS ALREADY MOVED
NE TO SW THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER
40S SOUTH. WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE RESULTS IN LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... AKA
JACKMAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES...CURRENTLY MEANDERING ITS WAY ACROSS
TX. WHILE FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A NRN
STREAM S/WV TROF WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING
WRN RIDGE. AS THESE AREAS OF LOWER HEIGHTS PHASE...SURFACE LOW
PRES WILL RE-INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUT TO
SEA. THE AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR S OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FARTHEST N. OVERALL POP WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.

WITH STUBBORN LOWER HEIGHTS REMAINING NEARBY...AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER CANNOT BE REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM
THE FORECAST. THAT WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS COOLER ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND...AS GENERALLY NE FLOW PREVAILS. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD HOWEVER...WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH EWD...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY... GUSTS TO 25 KTWILL
DIE DOWN SOON AFTER SUNSET. VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY AND MOIST WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY. RECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINS AND GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WILL KEEP
FIRE CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES


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