Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 300953
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AWAY
FROM EXTREME HIGHS BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED
EAST LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREAS. THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN THE MID 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR
80 FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NONE OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES HAVE
ANY MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z
GFS BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF HOLDS A DEEPER TROUGH OUT ALONG 130W THEN SLOWLY MOVING
IT INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ENSEMBLES ARE CLOSER TO THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH THE NAEFS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY(APRIL 7) AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS NEXT MONDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY IN THE SIERRA NEAR YOSEMITE...ALTHOUGH IF THE ECMWF AND
NAEFS ARE CORRECT SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HAVE LEFT NEXT MONDAY
DRY FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
PATTERN EVOLVES.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-30       85:2003     52:1936     58:1978     31:1897
KFAT 03-31       89:1966     50:1967     58:1986     31:1905
KFAT 04-01       90:1966     49:1982     56:1939     32:1975

KBFL 03-30       88:1923     57:1904     59:1978     30:1907
KBFL 03-31       90:2003     50:1925     60:1969     32:1908
KBFL 04-01       88:2011     54:1998     62:1900     32:1917
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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