Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 020726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS
WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST ON INITIALLY
EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. FARTHER INLAND WHERE MARINE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE MINIMIZED...STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD WORK
ITS MAGIC AND PUSH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
TO AROUND 70 IN WILMINGTON AND MID-UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
COMPARING MODEL INITIALIZATION TO THE OFFSHORE BUOY AIR TEMPERATURES
THE GFS MAY BE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO WARM...SO MY FORECAST IS A
COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE 00Z GFS MOS...BLENDING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE 00Z NAM MOS.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO 55-60 TONIGHT...MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING
ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 700-900 MB LAYER. THE APPROACH OF A
500 MB DISTURBANCE TONIGHT SHOULD NOT SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
OWING TO THIS DRY AIR DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS TONIGHT. AT THE TOP
OF THE SHALLOW SURFACE MOIST LAYER...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AFTER 2 AM...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. LOWS SHOULD END UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY AFTN. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFFSHORE TO
START THE PERIOD...WITH RETURN FLOW FLOODING VERY WARM...AND
SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID...AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 13-
14C...WHICH COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SOME MID 80S
POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE REGION. WHILE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY...HAVE ADDED A SCHC POP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTN DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME OF
THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED WAA WILL
KEEP MINS ABOVE 60 MOST PLACES.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT RACES SE. QPF IS STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE STRENGTH WILL BE INHIBITED BY TIME OF
DAY (LACK OF INSTABILITY)...WEAK MID-LEVEL PVA...AND SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RFQ OF THE UPPER JET. SREF PLUMES SHOW MEAN QPF HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES...STILL PRETTY LIGHT BUT WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF CHC POP...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
LATE MORNING BEFORE COLD ADVECTION DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 2C
AND TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE AFTN. RAPID DRYING WILL HELP SUNSHINE
DEVELOP BY THE AFTN IN THE WEST...EVENING EAST...SO EVEN THOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD END UP WITH RELATIVELY
NICE. CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS...N/NE WINDS...AND A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
NO FROST IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ONE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ON
TAP FOR SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BEHIND
SATURDAYS COLD FRONT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN COLD TEMPS HOWEVER...AS
FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S
CREATING A VERY PLEASANT EASTER SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST AND SETUP AS A BERMUDA-TYPE RIDGE
WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BULGE. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
WITHIN THIS PATTERN - ONE TYPICALLY SEEN IN SUMMER - AND TEMPS FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL RISE FROM NORMAL MONDAY...TO WELL ABOVE BY
WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES...SEVERAL DAYS OF
MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL CAUSE INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS OR
HEAVY QPF IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.

VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME AOB 5
KTS. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WILL SEE HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...BECOMING SCT/BKN INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY EASTERLY BUT WILL VEER
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE STRONGEST THIS MORNING...15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...BUT
SHOULD DIE DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AROUND SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE A SECOND
PEAK IN WIND SPEED NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO PERHAPS 15 KT AT TIMES.

SEA HEIGHTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE 0-20 NM
WATERS...AND ARE BEING MEASURED AS HIGH AS 6 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS SHOULD DIE DOWN TO 2-3 FEET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY INCREASE BACK TO 4 FEET TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONGER WINDS OUT OVER THE
GULF STREAM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTN...DISPLACING BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY. BEFORE THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SW WINDS WILL CLIMB AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED...REACHING 15-20 KTS MOST OF FRIDAY...AND THEN BRIEFLY UP
TOWARDS 25 KTS SATURDAY MORNING. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP
FROM 2-4 FT...TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
SATURDAY AFTN WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...BECOMING NE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AT STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT PUSHES
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE...BUT WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...WARM MOIST AIR FLOODING OVER THE WATERS ON THE SW
WINDS FRIDAY EVE INTO SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SEA FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALL 6 PARAMETERS WITHIN THE LOCAL MARINE
FOG DECISION TREE SUGGEST FOG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED AREAS OF MARINE FOR FOR ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY...CREATING HIGHLY VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS INTO MONDAY. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL BE NE 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AROUND 10 KTS LATE. FURTHER
VEERING TO THE S/SE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SPEEDS AS THE HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGHEST SEAS
WILL BE 3-4 FT BOTH EARLY SUNDAY ON A NE WIND WAVE...AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS THE SE WINDS COMBINE WITH A SUBTLY INCREASING GROUND
SWELL. OTHERWISE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW


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