Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 061414
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 11 AM ACROSS THE FAR
NRN ZONES. THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE
MORE INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NRN BORDER WILL
REMAIN CLOSE. DIURNAL HEATING AND A MIX OF SOME MID CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME
HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A POP UP
SHOWER/STORM LATE IN THE DAY ACRS THE FAR NRN ZONES. WILL LEAVE
DRY ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR. IT WILL BE VERY WARM FOR EARLY MAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO MID JULY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY EVENING AGAIN LOOKS MILD AS OHIO REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A COASTAL LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA HELPING TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. A
WEAK REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRYING TO PINCH OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOW
DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY MORE INTO AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF FROM GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO MUDDLE
THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRIES TO HEAD EAST. THE MAIN ISSUE MODELS TEND TO BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL REFLECTION
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS BULGES THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER
TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH. HOW DOES THIS AFFECT OUR AREA? WITH A WEAKER RIDGE
AXIS ON THE GFS THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND STALL.
THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS/ CMC
SOLUTION IS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WHILE
THE EURO HAS BETTER FOCUS TOWARDS THE NORTH. EVENTUALLY THE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GETS PICKED UP IN BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO AND BRINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH FRONT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 1.6 TO 1.70"
FORECASTED PWATS AND DECENT OMEGA VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF STRATUS AND VLIFR FOG HAS BEEN SAGGING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SO THINK IT SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF KCMH
THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR BR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CU
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL





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