Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 261607 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER NICE MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUN AFTER
SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG DISSIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER
WARM AS A FRONT OOZES INTO OUR REGION AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS TODAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.60 INCHES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM OUT TO OUR WEST. I HAVE KEPT MY WEST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING THAT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE TOO SPARSE TO GENERATE
MUCH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON...ESPECIALLY AT HBG. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO
NW/N AS A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. /DL/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THANKFULLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE ONLY
SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING
NORTHERN ZONES. TODAY THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ARRIVING TOO LATE TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM REACHING HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ONLY A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 MAY SEE MAXIMUMS
LIMITED TO LESS THAN 80 DEGREES. AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LIFT BY 10 AM ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGESTS ENOUGH POOLING MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO BUILD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COMING RIGHT UP TO THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
ERUPT SOME POTENT STORMS MAINLY BACK TO OUR WEST (AND CLOSER TO A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS). FOR NOW OUR CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AND THEREFORE WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY RISK IN THE HWO.
HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE THREAT IS DEFINITELY CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR WITH VIGILANCE.

BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. MEANWHILE...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE EJECTING MINOR
DISTURBANCES THIS WAY. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE PRODUCED ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A PATH FOR ONE OR MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FOLLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SPC IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THIS TIME PERIOD BUT WE STILL WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO DUE TO CONFIDENCE THAT
THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY COMPLEXES SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. DESPITE THIS THINKING WE STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN AND SOME STORMS AT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
ALL THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE GULF IS FORECAST BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO
HELP SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW...WHICH SHOULD THEN REINFORCE THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR OVER THE REGION (ALTHOUGH ALSO PROBABLY
HELPING TO EXPAND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH THROUGH FRONTOGENETIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISMS). /BB/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ON TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF INDICATES LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 KM/CM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS ISNT QUIT SO UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE FACT THERE WILL BE A COOL STABLE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR .5 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  60  74  54 /   6  11  20  51
MERIDIAN      86  57  74  56 /   5   9  12  35
VICKSBURG     86  61  73  56 /   9  16  26  60
HATTIESBURG   89  63  77  59 /   5  15  32  55
NATCHEZ       86  64  76  57 /   9  18  47  63
GREENVILLE    82  57  70  54 /  10  18  19  50
GREENWOOD     82  56  70  52 /   8  12  13  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DL/BB/15


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