Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040231
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND A LOW
PRESSURE UNDULATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS DELIVERING FRESH
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. THIS PAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A
FEW DRY STABLE LAYERS ABOVE...THAT HAS THUS FAR...PREVENTED MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
A MIX OF FAST MOVING THIN CIRRUS...AND A NUMBER OF MARINE CLOUD
LINES.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER...AND DEW POINTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY CREEP
UPWARDS. THE STABLE LAYERS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE DUE TO
PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATE IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
KEYS WATERS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT VERY ROUGH SEAS AS HIGH AS AROUND 8
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
GENERALLY EAST AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 KNOTS AND UP TO 28.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE WILL AFFECT THE
AIRPORTS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS MOMENT. THEREFORE... TAFS WILL BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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