Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 030820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST. COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN THE 80S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH MIXING. BEST DYNAMICS OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH. DEW POINTS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HIGH BASES AOA 10KFT. BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT AS
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT AND ENERGY BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING FAIR CHANCES TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
OVER NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS REMAIN IN SOUND AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
COOL AND CLOUDY WEEK IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC SPLIT STREAM FLOW IN
THE WESTERN CONUS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WILL BE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES OF NOTE...WITH
A LARGE CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. A SFC FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...MEANING MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND COOLER...CLOUDY DAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM PV
ANOMALY EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STALLED
FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MERIDIONAL AS HEIGHTS BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ADVANCING WAVE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. 00Z GFS ADVERTISES
PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR GREATER BY LATE TUESDAY...WELL ABOVE CLIMO
FOR EARLY MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO EARLY IN THE DAY AND MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
QPF WILL CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DPVA AND DIFLUENT FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PV MAX MOVES OVER NEBRASKA AND BEGINS TO
DEFLECT THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR EAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GENERALLY DRY OUT THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT THAT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA. POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PERIOD...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KLBF AND KVTN. A
LEAD DISTURBANCE MAY BRING 5SM -TSRA TO KLBF AFTER 03Z/4TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG




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