Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 271732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER ALREADY BEHIND SEVERE MCS...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RE-DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL KICK OUT TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIKELY A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL TRY TO TIME THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO GROUPS STARTING AT KBPT FROM
ROUGHLY 28/03Z THROUGH AROUND 28/09Z AT KLFT/KARA.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  60  66  50 /  80  80  30  10
LCH  79  66  73  52 /  80  70  20  10
LFT  79  67  74  53 /  80  80  30  10
BPT  80  65  73  52 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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