Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 052102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN NV THIS EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY AND
EAST CENTRAL NV WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONVERGE AND LI`S ZERO OR LESS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL NV OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS UNSTABLE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CA...THE GFS
PLACES THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE EC A TAD SOUTH. MEANWHILE...WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CWA MAY SEE SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON ASSUMING CLOUD COVER DOESN`T INHIBIT THEM.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND A SECOND LOW
LOOMING UPSTREAM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST SEPARATING THE TWO. AT THE
ONSET...EXPECTING POPS RANGING FROM 75 TO 20 ACROSS THE LKN CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX FROM
THE GREAT BASIN LOW. THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE
WAS DETERMINING WHERE THE QPF WOULD MATERIALIZE. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS PING INTO SHOWERS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY. HEDGED
BETWEEN THE DOWN- SCALED GFS AND EC. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...THE
CUTOFF LOW WORKS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE MID 60S WITH
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. FOR MAY 11TH...WENT
FOR A HIGH OF 69F IN ELKO AND 71F IN WINNEMUCCA...AND THE MEAN MAX
TEMP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS RESPECTIVELY IS 68F AND 71F.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. ANY OUTFLOWS FROM TSRA COULD REACH 40 MPH. EQUIPMENT-
WISE...THE ASOS AT WINNEMUCCA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING
TELECOMMUNICATIONS ISSUES. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THIS
WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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