Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 042031
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PLAINS. TO THE
EAST...AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN OVER GA/SC REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON MIDSOUTH
WEATHER.

THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESS BY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MIDSOUTH. AS THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
CONTINUES...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN AR
THURSDAY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...DAYTIME TEMPS MAY MODERATE DUE TO THE RAIN.
OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY MAY NORMALS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. S WINDS OF 8-10 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00-01Z. THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 6
KTS OR LESS. SPEEDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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