Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 261500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THAT IS
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST MAY GET SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH VERY WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...BRINGING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK TO THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE
MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP AFTER THAT WITH THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
WARMING TREND OVER INLAND AREAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MOSTLY IN THE COAST
RANGE...TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN UMPQUA
VALLEY TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TODAY BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A BRIEF AND WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT.
STRONGER NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15


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