Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 030829 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
429 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST. DESPITE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS...
THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. THEREFORE EXPECT JUST SCATTERED
ATLANTIC AND DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDINESS OVER LAND. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST THIS MORNING. TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES AND EXPECT A FEW MARINE
SHOWERS. THE GFS ONLY GENERATES LIGHT PRECIP THOUGH...SO WILL NOT
INTRODUCE COASTAL POPS JUST YET. WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE WINDS...NUDGED MOS TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

MON-TUE...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO EARLY THIS WEEK BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF FLORIDA. LATEST GFS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 925MB
INCREASING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AS DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED MON AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE LATE MON NIGHT-TUE.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH AFT
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED.

WED-SAT...FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING FROM MID WEEK ONWARD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME AGREEING ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLOWER TO
DEVELOP/WEAKER FEATURE FARTHER EAST OF FL...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FASTER FORMATION OF THE LOW AND HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES AND IT STILL BEING FARTHER OUT IN THE
FORECAST THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THAT SAID...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME SEEM TO
HAVE LESS IMPACT ON RAIN COVERAGE AND MORE TOWARDS WINDS AND MARINE
ISSUES. BOTH CONTINUE TO WRAP SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY TO 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLED CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THIS IS TEMPORARY THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE EASTERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE
BY LATE TODAY AND MORESO LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LONGER
PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WAS ALREADY PRESSING INTO THE WATERS. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS/SWELL WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND NEARSHORE SOUTH ZONE.
CONDITIONS AT INLETS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ROUGH DURING THE OUTGOING
TIDES.

MON-THU...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
THIS WEEK AS A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE BUILDS SEAS TO 6-7
FEET OFFSHORE. SFC LOW MAY FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AS EARLY AS MID
WEEK LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THU...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL...BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  79  66 /   0  10  20  20
MCO  84  62  83  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  79  66  79  71 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  80  64  80  71 /   0  10  20  30
LEE  84  61  84  65 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  82  61  82  65 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  82  63  82  67 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  80  64  80  71 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH


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