Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 040747
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
247 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
WITH CAROLINAS BASED SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES USHERING IN SLY
FLOW ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DYNAMICS FROM THE SW U.S. BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALSO PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...WARM AND DRY WX
WITH GENERALLY MOCLR SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED NIGHT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS PLATEAU WED AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING ATM MOISTURE
POTENTIAL INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC
AFFECTS POTENTIALLY BUSTING THRU THIS SUBSIDENCE CAP. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU...WITH LOWS GENERALLY BEING
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
THURSDAY`S WEATHER MAP WILL INCLUDE A SW-NE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD ON INTO FRIDAY BUT WILL
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SFC
DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY ON SATURDAY AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED...NO WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
INDICATED. THUS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL NEED TO SWING TO THE
FAVORABLE SIDE IN ORDER FOR SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO RETURN.
A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAVORABLE CAPE/CAP
RATIO FINALLY DOES KICK IN ACROSS OUR PLATEAU ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF FAVORABLE LIFT...IN FACT SUBSIDENCE...
IS GOING TO PUT THE CLAMPS ON MY DECISION TO INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION.
ONCE WE GET TO SATURDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH
WILL WORK WITH THE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE CAPE/CAP RATIOS TO INDUCE
LOW POPS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A LEVEL OF DEEPENING IN REGARD TO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
THUS...LOW POPS WILL AGAIN BE INCLUDED.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...A DEFINITIVE WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL. ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH
THE MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    83  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  54  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       83  52  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   79  57  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        83  62  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/21




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