Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 251329 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADJUST POPS TO
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BAND OF MIXED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST
WITH AREA O0F SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY EDGE
NORTH AND EAST FROM OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD LIMIT
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POP NUMBERS WERE
THUS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 76 AS PER PERSISTENCE AND
THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH A QUICK END TO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH. WPC
GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE TREND OF THE PATTERN SUFFICIENTLY...HENCE
ONLY MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THAT FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONINUE SOUTH OF PIT TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE. RESTRICITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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