Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 040821
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
321 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS AREA...WITH SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST OF MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LVL SE-S FLOW
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
TUESDAY. NAM MODEL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AS EAST TO
WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
DEVELOPING DRY LINE REMAINING OVER FAR WEST TX THRU THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SET UP...WILL LACK
SPEED IN LOW LVL JET AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN SVR WX WITH THE
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR. AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO
MID 80S WILL LIKELY PERSIST...YET OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY EDGE INTO MID
TO UPPER 60S AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS. SFC LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER PANHANDLES BY WEEKEND...AND AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO
NE LATE IN WEEKEND...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME...A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS INTO SE CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTN./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  20
MLU  84  61  85  61 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  83  60  82  62 /  10  10  20  20
TXK  84  62  82  63 /  10  10  20  20
ELD  84  60  86  62 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  84  62  80  65 /  10  10  30  30
GGG  84  62  81  65 /  10  10  30  30
LFK  85  65  81  66 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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