Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LARGE
MCS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD.
UNFORTUNATELY...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A VERY GOOD INITIALIZATION
OF THIS FEATURE. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SEEM TOO SLOW WITH ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...AND THIS WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN A NON-LINEAR WAY THAT IS HARD TO PREDICT. ON THE ONE
HAND...THE MORE RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MCS MAY ALLOW
MORE TIME FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
BEHIND THIS MCS INTO THE GULF WHICH WILL HAVE TO CHANGE IF THERE
IS GOING TO BE ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE MSLP PATTERN
IS VERY MESSY AND THE MODELS STILL HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT WHERE
THE EVENTUAL MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK AND HOW STRONG IT WILL
BE. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE APRIL...IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH TIME
FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER AS IT WOULD IF THIS WERE JANUARY...SO
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

IN THE MEANTIME...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MCS. ALSO...GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [438 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE PRIMARY SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO BEGIN CLEARING THE AREA, SO UNTIL THAT TIME THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
NOT INITIALIZING CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL, AND SO THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, WE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS A
GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THIS TIME. IF INSTABILITY
CAN RECOVER AND STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THERE WOULD
BE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. DRIER
AIR WILL ARRIVE BRINGING COOLER OVERNIGHT WEATHER, AND MODERATE
THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL - SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED MUCH
THIS APRIL. FOR INSTANCE: TALLAHASSEE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
RECORD ONLY ITS FOURTH LOW TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S FOR THE MONTH
DESPITE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE MONTH RANGING FROM 50 TO 56. IN FACT,
TALLAHASSEE HAS NOT RECORDED A BELOW-NORMAL DAILY AVERAGE TEMP
THIS MONTH YET AND THURSDAY (THE LAST DAY OF APRIL) WILL BE THE
LAST AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE. REGARDLESS OF THIS DOSE OF COOLER
AIR, TALLAHASSEE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SET ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD AND PROBABLY DO SO BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTING, BUT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] IN GENERAL...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. ECP AND TLH HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.


.MARINE...

A WAKE LOW, OR A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
DIMINISHING STORMS, SEEMED TO BE AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SSE WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30-33 KNOTS
BASED ON OFFSHORE BUOY OBS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY, BUT
AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON A
SIMILAR SITUATION EVOLVING JUST UPSTREAM. WITH OBSERVED GUSTS ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES GENERALLY BEING BELOW 34 KNOTS, BUT WITH
SUDDENLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AND 25-30 KNOT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE,
WE OPTED TO HANDLE THE HAZARD WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RATHER
THAN A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.

WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...AND ANOTHER ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WINDS SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR AT SCEC
LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL THE BEACHES
WITH EXPECTED SURF HEIGHTS PEAKING IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE,
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE WAVE
GROUPS DUE TO THE SHIFTING GUSTY WINDS OFFSHORE.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE AND APALACHICOLA RIVER AT
BLOUNTSTOWN WERE ABOUT TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, THE
EXPECTED AVERAGE TOTALS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME AREA RIVERS MAY SEE INCREASED FLOWS
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NOT MANY SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  65  78  57  76 /  70  50  40  10  10
PANAMA CITY   75  66  72  59  74 /  80  40  30  10  10
DOTHAN        72  61  69  54  73 /  60  50  40  10  10
ALBANY        72  60  69  53  73 /  60  60  50  10  10
VALDOSTA      71  62  74  56  74 /  60  60  50  10  10
CROSS CITY    75  65  79  59  76 /  70  60  50  10  10
APALACHICOLA  75  69  77  60  74 /  90  50  30  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS


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