Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281331
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
931 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA IS CURRENTLY ON
GOING THANKS TO A WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING AS EVIDENT ON THE 12Z TBW
SOUNDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SATURATED THE COLUMN LEADING TO THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER TODAY...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUDNERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER FREEZING LEVEL AND FAIRLY
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY TAPERED RAIN
CHANCES OFF AFTER SUNSET GIVEN MODEL TRENDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH AND VCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM STORMS THAT PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL TEMPO FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS
NECESSARY TODAY. EXPECTING RA AND TSRA TO TAPPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO TAMPA BAY. SOME OF
THESE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE FOR MARINERS TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A NEED FOR SCEC OR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. SOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  73  83  68 / 100  50  60  20
FMY  89  74  86  71 /  70  50  80  30
GIF  83  70  83  66 / 100  50  60  20
SRQ  82  75  84  69 /  80  50  60  20
BKV  82  68  83  62 / 100  50  50  30
SPG  82  73  82  70 / 100  50  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
DATA SUPPORT...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE


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