Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 041542
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
845 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY NOW EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF
CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED NEAR DEATH VALLEY NP.  OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD LIFT ENAHNCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SO IVE INCREASED POPS
A BIT MORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

-OUTLER-


.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SO FAR TONIGHT, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR/SATELLITE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
SAN BERNARDINO, LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.

STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE MOVES IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS PRIMARILY
FOCUS THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES BUT OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION AS
WELL. MODEL QPF PROGS ARE LESS GENEROUS IN VALLEY AND LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS BUT ARE NOT EXACTLY KNOWN FOR HANDLING CONVECTIVE PRECIP
ALL THAT WELL. AS WAS NOTED WITH STORMS YESTERDAY, ERRATIC...GUSTY
WINDS ARE A CONCERN IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND OUTFLOW.

WINDS OTHER THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY 10-20 MPH TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. A COOLING TREND
CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. NORMAL RIGHT NOW IN LAS VEGAS IS 85 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY WILL ACT UPON
LINGERING MOISTURE IN WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FROM
MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM NEAR BISHOP NORTHEAST TO
ELY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

BY THURSDAY, TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A 552 DM CLOSED LOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE UNDER
THE UPPER LOW SO PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. A DRY SLOT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE COUNTIES
WITHIN THE DRY SLOT AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX OUT.

FRIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AREA WIDE AS UPPER
LOW MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DESERTS. MAINTAINED LOWER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40 IN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS LIMITED TO LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

THERE WILL BE A WILD SWING IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY. HOWEVER, VALUES FORECAST TO RETURN
QUICKLY TO NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN ALL
THE APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY OR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS AND STORM OUTFLOW.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN SAN BERN, MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. PRIMARY CONCERNS
WITH STORMS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS AND STORM OUTFLOW.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
. &&

$$

SALMEN/PIERCE

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