Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2339 (N12E70, Ekc/beta-gamma)
produced an impulsive X2 (R3-Strong) flare at 05/2211 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed 1163 km/s) and 590 sfu
Tenflare. Region 2339 also produced two M1 flares (R1-Minor) at 05/0947
UTC and 05/1353 UTC respectively. The M1 flare from Region 2339 at
05/1353 also had an associated Type II radio sweep at 05/1351 UTC, with
an estimated shock speed of 1110 km/s. LASCO C2 imagery from the
timeframe near this flare activity indicated a CME did appeared to erupt
off the northeast limb, but initial analysis indicated no signs of an
earth directed component.

Region 2335 (S16E11, Ekc/beta-gamma) also produced two M-Class flares
flares, an M1/Sf (R1-Minor) at 05/1425 UTC and an M2/2n (R1 Minor) at
05/1724 UTC, respectively, but no Earth-directed CMEs are expected with
either of these flares either.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight, yet increasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare , over
the next three days (06-08 May). Regions 2235 and 2239 are the likely
sources of increased flare activity.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (06-08 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal. Wind
speed remained between 350 - 400 km/s, Phi was generally positive,
Bt held steady around 5 - 6 nT, and Bz was at or above -5 nT with a
mostly southward component from around 05/0400 UTC until 05/1145 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels
initially in the period. The effects of the anticipated arrival of the
recurrent negative polarity coronal hole should set in on day one (06
May). Associated with that feature is likely to be minor solar wind
enhancements lasting through midday on day two (07 May). A further solar
wind enhancement is anticipated midday to late on day one (06 May) from
the arrival of the 02 May CME.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels through the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels until the
onset of the anticipated recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) on day one (06 May). With that feature, unsettled
to active conditions are likely to persist through day two (07 May).
Accompanying the CH HSS on day two is an anticipated CME from 02 May
that is expected to contribute to the unsettled to active conditions
into day three (08 May).


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