Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE EIGHTH...AND FINAL...IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY
SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING
SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED
ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF GENERALIZED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING DURING THE SPRING THAW.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR
FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN EVENTS...THE INTENSITY
OF ANY MILD SPELLS...WIND SPEED AND RAPID INCREASES IN HUMIDITY
ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS IN DETERMINING THE OCCURRENCE AND
SEVERITY OF SPRING FLOODING. SPECIFIC FORECASTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. OUTCOMES
BETTER...OR WORSE...THAN THIS OUTLOOK ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS. IF CONDITIONS CHANGE RAPIDLY IN THE INTERIM...FLOOD
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

...SUMMARY...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS...NORMAL. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME WHAT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD BE FOR LATE IN
THE SPRING FLOOD SEASON WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS
AND GROUND CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. SHORT OF A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS OR
LESS...THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE NORMAL.

...DETAILS ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR
ON OCTOBER 1, 2014...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS AND 15 TO
25 OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THIS TURNS OUT TO BE MAINLY NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF LONG TERM PRECIPITATION FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN...BUT
ONLY ABOUT 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF THE LONG TERM AVERAGE FOR THE
CHEMUNG...FINGER LAKES/OSWEGO...AND UPPER DELAWARE BASINS. THESE
DEFICITS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR TO
DECLARE MUCH OF THE REGION IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY PERIOD (D0-DROUGHT).
THE COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA HAS ALSO INCLUDED ALL OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA IN A DROUGHT WATCH ACCORDING TO CRITERIA
SET BY THEIR DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...NORMAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW LEFT IN THE REGION AND FURTHER
MELTING WILL HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT.

.RIVER ICE...NORMAL. RIVER ICE NO LONGER EXISTS IN THE REGION.

.STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AT USGS STREAM
GAUGES AROUND THE BASINS.

.SOIL CONDITIONS...NORMAL. SHORT TERM 0-10 CM VOLUMETRIC SOIL
MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED AS WET. THIS IS NORMAL DURING THE SPRING
MELT PERIOD. LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT INDICES SUGGEST NORMAL SOIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...NORMAL. RECENT RAINS AND MELTING OF
THE SNOW PACK HAVE RETURNED MOST LAKES AND RESERVOIRS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CURRENT OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
MODELS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY LARGE RAIN EVENTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - MULTI-
MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SOME RIVER POINTS WILL
REMAIN...OR RETURN TO NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS...BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING REMAINS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THE PROBABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE INDICATES THAT MOST RIVER POINTS HAVE A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
CONDITIONS UNTIL NEXT DECEMBER.

$$

JAB



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