Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FGUS71 KBOX 161600
ESFBOX
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-181200-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1200 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...THE LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE SHORTER TERM...MINOR
FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE HADDAM...WHICH IS
THE RESULT OF RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THIS IS THE NINTH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2015 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON.  FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EVERY ONE TO TWO WEEKS INTO THE
SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED
ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.  THIS
INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER
LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES...

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN HAS EMERGED IN APRIL WITH THE LONGER TERM
CLIMATE SITES REPORTING PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES BELOW AVERAGE SO FAR THIS MONTH.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MONTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MORE
TYPICAL OF SPRING OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SO
FAR IN APRIL HAVE AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
MASSACHUSETTS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF PATCHY SNOW COVER REMAINS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WATER CONTENT OF THE REMAINING SNOW
PACK IS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS WERE RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RIVER ICE WAS NO LONGER PRESENT.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF
THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )...SIGNIFICANT RECHARGE
HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE GENERALLY RECOVERED TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE SCITUATE RHODE ISLAND RESERVOIR WAS AT A LEVEL OF 284.76 FEET AS
OF APRIL 15...WHICH IS 103.4 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND 0.8 FEET ABOVE
THE SPILLWAY LEVEL. THIS LEVEL IS ABOUT 1.8 FEET ABOVE THE APRIL
HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF 283 FT. AS OF APRIL 1...QUABBIN RESERVOIR WAS
AT 94.9 PERCENT CAPACITY AND WACHUSETT RESERVOIR WAS AT 85.2 PERCENT
CAPACITY.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
BRINGS SOME RAINFALL TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ASIDE FROM ONGOING MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE HADDAM...FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IT APPEARS A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 23 TO 29 CALLS FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

...SUMMARY...

THE LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE SHORTER TERM...MINOR
FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE HADDAM.

THE SNOWPACK IS LARGELY GONE ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL RIVER
AND STREAM FLOWS...COMBINED WITH THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE APRIL...INDICATES THE LONGER TERM
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WITHOUT A SNOWPACK. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS
AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS...THEN
CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE
SEASON.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.