Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FGUS71 KBUF 162158
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-302200-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
558 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 30TH...

THIS IS THE EIGHTH AND LAST WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
OF THE 2015 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS
INTO EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE
AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS
OF APRIL WHICH MELTED THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK.
THERE IS PRETTY MUCH NO SNOW PACK LEFT IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS BASIN AND
GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY RIVER BASINS. THERE IS SOME SNOW REMAINING
IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...WITH MOST OF THIS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ON THE TUG HILL. RIVERS ARE FREE FLOWING...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ICE REMAINING ON WATERWAYS. DUE TO THE LATE SEASON SNOW
MELT...FLOWS ON MOST CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS OF
THURSDAY MORNING ON APRIL 16TH:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.CREEK FLOWS.........ABOVE NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....LITTLE TO NONE.
.GROUND FROST........UP TO 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........PARTIALLY FROZEN.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THIS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO STALL
NEAR THE MIDWEST WITH A MOIST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SOME STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WOULD SET UP A COOL PATTERN WITH
FREQUENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT PROVIDES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN
DEVELOPING...WITH IT LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH FORECASTS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
OVERALL THERE IS NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 30TH.

THE MAIN BASIN TO WATCH IS THE BLACK RIVER WHICH STILL HAS SOME
LIMITED SNOW PACK AND FLOWS AROUND ACTION STAGE AT THE ISSUANCE OF
THIS PRODUCT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...FORECAST CONDITIONS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING. FLOWS ARE HIGH ON OTHER BASINS...BUT
RAIN ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY TENDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME...AND THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER
IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THIS IS THE LAST HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 SEASON. THANKS TO
ALL THE OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN
SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL





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