Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

REGIONALLY...PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS RANGED
FROM 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES.

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL.
THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL...
OR CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 5 ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS ARE STILL NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST...PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS
RATHER THAN ENSO.  SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK FOR 2015.

$$





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