Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FGUS71 KGYX 301857
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MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-021900-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS
PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

THIS IS THE TENTH AND FINAL HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS SPRING
SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END
OF THE SNOW MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING BASED A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

IT APPEARS WE HAVE FINALLY TURNED THE CORNER WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
CLIMBING TO NORMAL OR ABOVE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN BLOW NORMAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS WHICH HAS HELP
PREVENT ANY SERIOUS FLOODING.

THE OFFICIAL 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE ONLY REMAINING SNOW IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
ABOVE 2000 FEET RANGES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 9 INCHES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. AT MOOSE FALLS IN
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE A SNOW SURVEY MADE APRIL 28 RECORDED 23
INCHES OF SNOW AND 9.1 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.

...WESTERN MAINE...

THE ONLY REMAINING SNOW IN WESTERN MAINE IS IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE RANGELEY LAKES TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
RANGES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 7 OR 8
INCHES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTHWEST OF MOOSEHEAD LAKE.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS FROM APRIL 29 INDICATE NEAR NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FOR APRIL 25 WHICH INDICATES
LONGER TERM MOISTURE CONDITIONS SHOWS NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE FOR ALL
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

THE USGS REPORTS THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER
BASIN ARE 62.2 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 0.3 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. IN
THE KENNEBEC BASIN MOOSEHEAD AND FLAGSTAFF LAKES ARE BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. BRASSUA LAKE IS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE RESERVOIRS IN BOTH THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND
KENNEBEC RIVER BASINS ARE ON THE RISE AND HAVE SUFFICIENT ROOM TO
CATCH THE REMAINING SNOWMELT THIS SPRING.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. HEADWATER
STREAMS ARE CYCLING DUE TO THE REMAINING SNOWMELT WITH RISES
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RECEDING LATE AT NIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTNIUE FOR 1 TO 2 MORE WEEKS AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
MELTS AWAY.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN MELTING AWAY IN AN ORDERLY
FASHION. THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 2 MONTHS HAS HELPED TREMENDOUSLY. WE ARE NOW STARTING THE
GREENUP PROCESS SO FOLIAGE WILL BE BEGIN TO TAKE UP A GOOD PORTION
OF ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. WE COULD ACTUALLY USE SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM
SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF
FLOODING.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON.

$$

TFH



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