Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 202250
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN
THIS AREA...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS.

MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE BIG BLACK RIVER
IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD FROM BENTONIA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.
EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PUSH THE ENTIRE RIVER INTO MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOOD. THE YALOBUSHA AND THE BIG SUNFLOWER IN THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN
WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE MINOR FLOODING. IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
TENSAS...BAYOU MACON...AND THE BOEUF RIVER. SOME OF THE RIVERS
AND BAYOUS WILL RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD. BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW IN
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO RISE FROM
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
THE RIVER TO RISE HIGHER THAN CURRENT CREST FORECAST OF 24.5 FEET ON
THE 23RD AT WILMOT ARKANSAS AND 25.0 FEET ON THE 28TH AT JONES
LOUISIANA. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

RIVERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL SEE MODERATE RISES. IF HEAVIER
RAINFALL OCCURS THAN THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2 INCHES...SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR. STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION DURING THE WEEKEND.

$$

MVP/AEG



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