Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

PAST AND EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2014 (SHORTLY AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE DRY
SEASON). MOST OF THIS AREA HAS ONLY RECORDED BETWEEN 50 TO 75
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECORDING ONLY 25 TO
50 PERCENT.

RAINFALL NORTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL SINCE
NOVEMBER 1, 2014 WITH MOST AREAS RECORDING BETWEEN 90 TO 110 PERCENT
OF NORMAL RAINFALL, EXCEPT FOR METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 75 TO
90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WAS RECORDED.

SOIL MOISTURE... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI), WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OR SOIL DRYNESS, SHOWS MODERATE DRYNESS OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH AREAS OF SEVERE DRYNESS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.

GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WAS
AROUND 14.7 FEET WHICH IS AROUND 0.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OF 14.5 FEET.

RIVER FLOWS...THE CURRENT LEVEL OF FISHEATING CREEK IS AROUND 3.5
FEET, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS, WITH THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOK CALLING FOR AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR, ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST CPC THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
CALLS FOR AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE CURRENT HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FORM THE WINTER
SEASON...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OUTLOOK
INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL
FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THIS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE US ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEORLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

$$

BAXTER/MOLLEDA



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