Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 161608
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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-301615-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1208 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 8...

THIS IS THE EIGHT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM APRIL 21ST THROUGH APRIL 25TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 23RD THROUGH
APRIL 29TH SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE TWO TO THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED
DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR
NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE
FIRST SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
WILL BE AROUND APRIL 20TH AND 21ST. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT AND LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE...ON THURSDAY APRIL 30TH, 2015.

$$



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