Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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AZZALL-051200-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST WED MAR 5 2015

...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL OF ARIZONA...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ARIZONA RIVERS AND STREAMS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO BELOW MEDIAN SNOWPACK AND LOW PROBABILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT DURING WHAT IS NORMALLY A DRY PORTION
OF THE YEAR.

SNOWMELT ALONE RARELY RESULTS IN FLOODING WITHIN THE STATE.
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK...BELOW MEDIAN STREAMFLOW...AND BELOW AVERAGE
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...ALL POINT TOWARD A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD
OF SPRING FLOODING. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL
NINO ADVISORY...INDICATING THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE EL NINO
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS SUMMER. THIS HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON SPRING PRECIPITATION
IN ARIZONA.

SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 1ST WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT ARIZONA.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS...THERE IS AN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THRU THE SPRING MONTHS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR THOUGH IS NORMALLY DRY...SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.

STREAMFLOW RATES AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WERE BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS
MOST OF ARIZONA.

DESPITE SOME RECENT PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS OF ARIZONA REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TO DATE...
   BELOW NORMAL
CURRENT RESERVOIR STORAGE...
   BELOW NORMAL
MONTHLY RUNOFF FORECAST...
   BELOW NORMAL
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
   ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
      ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA
   EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
      EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...
   2015 WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2014 THRU FEBRUARY 2015)

   BASIN / REGION                 SEASONAL PRECIP
                                PERCENT OF AVERAGE

   UPPER GILA                          73
   SALT                                73
   VERDE                               73
   SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS                 82
   LITTLE COLORADO                     74
   CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM                68
   NORTHWEST ARIZONA                   47

PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE...
  OCT 1 2014 THRU FEB 28 2015...

STATION           CURRENT   AVERAGE

  COOLIDGE          4.46     4.35
  DOUGLAS           4.25     3.94
  FLAGSTAFF         9.04     9.50
  PAYSON            7.50     9.80
  PHOENIX           1.86     3.94
  TUCSON            6.45     4.19
  WICKENBURG        4.93     5.48
  WINSLOW           3.58     2.58

SNOW PACK SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
  AS REPORTED MARCH 1 2015 BY NRCS

  BASIN / REGION                   PERCENT OF
                                     MEDIAN
  SALT RIVER                           30
  VERDE RIVER                          24
  LITTLE COLORADO RIVER                27
  SAN FRANCISCO - UPPER GILA RIVER     27
  CHUSKA MOUNTAINS                     43
  CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM                 17
  SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS                  67
  STATEWIDE                            32

SOIL CONDITIONS...

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS FOR ARIZONA SHOWS SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF ARIZONA.

RESERVOIRS...
  AS OF MARCH 5 2015 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

RESERVOIR/SYSTEM       PERCENT     VOLUME IN
                         FULL       ACRE-FT
   LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
      LYMAN LAKE          14           4270
   COLORADO RIVER
      LAKE POWELL         45       11028000    MAR 4
      LAKE MEAD           41       1O742000    MAR 4
      LAKE MOHAVE         93        1689000    MAR 4
      LAKE HAVASU         97         601800    MAR 4
   BILL WILLIAMS RIVER
       ALAMO LAKE          7          67474
   SALT RIVER
       SALT SYSTEM        56        1114040
   VERDE RIVER
       VERDE SYSTEM       60         173355
   AGUA FRIA RIVER
       LAKE PLEASANT      93         795859
   GILA RIVER
       SAN CARLOS         16         143800
       PAINTED ROCK        M              M

CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS...
  AS OF MARCH 1 2015

STREAMFLOWS ALL ACROSS THE STATE ARE CURRENTLY BELOW LONG-TERM
MEDIAN FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER BASIN                   PERCENT OF LONG-TERM MEDIAN

  GILA                                120
  SALT-VERDE                           35
  LITTLE COLORADO                      40

SPECIFIC SNOWMELT PEAK FLOW FORECASTS...

                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------      --   ---   ----   ----    ---
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
  LYMAN LK, ABV, ST. JOHNS, NR    MAR-JUN   1.23    20   4.70   0.60   6.00
ZUNI RIVER
  BLACK ROCK RES, ABV             MAR-MAY   0.14    61   0.75   0.05   0.23
CHEVELON CK
  WINSLOW, NR, WILDCAT CYN, BLO   MAR-MAY   2.80    20   8.20   0.20  13.90
GILA RIVER
  GILA, NR                        MAR-MAY  22.00    65  34.00  16.00  34.00
  VIRDEN, NR, BLUE CK, BLO        MAR-MAY  26.00    60  39.00  18.00  43.00
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
  GLENWOOD, NR                    MAR-MAY   8.10    53  14.50   5.10  15.20
  CLIFTON                         MAR-MAY  23.00    61  32.00  11.20  38.00
GILA RIVER
  SOLOMAN, NR, HEAD OF SAFFORD V  MAR-MAY   50.00   56  78.00  34.00  89.00
  SAN CARLOS RES, COOLIDGE DAM,   MAR-MAY   26.00   49  53.00   8.90  53.00
SALT RIVER
  ROOSEVELT, NR                   MAR-MAY  135.00   56 192.00  35.00 240.00
  ROOSEVELT, NR, GUN CK, ABV      MAR-MAY   19.10   87  40.00   6.20  22.00
VERDE RIVER
  BLO TANGLE CK, ABV HORSEHOE DA  MAR-MAY  117.00  109 198.00  71.00 107.00

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

****************************************************************************

FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION INCLUDING MORE DETAILED FORECAST
INFORMATION...BASIN CONDITION GRAPHICS...AND FORECAST EVOLUTION
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE CBRFC ONLINE WATER SUPPLY
PUBLICATION AT:

WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/WSUP/PUB2/MAP/HTML/CPUB.PHP
(ALL LOWER CASE)

NWS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...

LONG RANGE WEATHER FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY...
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ARIZONA
   EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
      EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA
   ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALL OF ARIZONA.

$$

MCLANE



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