Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY
115 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

UTAH FLOOD POTENTIAL FLOOD OUTLOOK


THE 2015 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME FOR THE GREAT BASIN, AS WELL AS THE SEVIER, VIRGIN,
PRICE/SAN RAFAEL, AND THE DUCHESNE RIVER BASINS.

CURRENT SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN THE ABOVE BASINS ARE BELOW AVERAGE.
CURRENT SEASONAL SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AS A PERCENT OF MEDIAN ARE:

BEAR RIVER BASIN64%
WEBER RIVER BASIN69%
SIX CREEKS RIVER BASIN59%
UTAH LAKE RIVER BASIN61%
DUCHESNE RIVER BASIN70%
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN115%
LAKE POWELL RIVER BASIN84%
SEVIER RIVER BASIN89%
VIRGIN RIVER BASIN81%


CURRENTLY, THE FOLLOWING SITES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT OR ABOVE THE
BANKFULL FLOW AT THE GIVEN EXCEEDANCE LEVEL:

BEAR RIVER AT EVANSTON, WY 10%

NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SPECIFIC FORECAST PROCEDURES AND FLOOD FLOW LEVELS DO NOT EXIST FOR
ALL STREAMS. GIVEN CURRENT SNOWPACK CONDITIONS, BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE PEAKS MAY BE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE STATE

CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY RUNOFF PERIOD
ARE BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.  IN
PARTICULAR, VOLUME FORECASTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
AND GREAT BASIN ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE SEASONAL RUNOFF BEGINS. WHILE SPRING
TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND,
CONSEQUENTLY, THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS, PEAK FLOWS ALSO
APPROXIMATELY CORRESPOND TO VOLUMETRIC FLOWS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO RECOGNIZE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MELT PERIOD CAN CAUSE OR
EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN ANY YEAR.

$$

BRIAN MCINERNEY
HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE



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