Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 030832
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT IN NORTHEAST
LOWER...HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY DRY SOILS AND FUELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND...OUR FIRE DANGER LOOKS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ARE LESS
CERTAIN AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-032030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
432 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SPRINKLES UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT...EXCEPT 38-43 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.45 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-032030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
432 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SPRINKLES UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT...EXCEPT 36-41 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0400. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2400. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 0400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.33 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-032030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
432 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT...EXCEPT 42-47 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.55 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.14 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-032030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
432 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.44 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.15 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-032030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
432 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......10300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.33 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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