Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS51 KBTV 041455
FWFBTV

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1055 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER EVALUATING LATEST GUIDANCE AND CONTACT WITH FIRE WEATHER
USERS IN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE RECENT DRY SPELL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT HAS
ALLOWED FINE FUELS BELOW 2000 FEET TO BECOME VERY DRY ACCORDING TO
THE VERMONT DEPARTMENT OF FOREST...PARKS...AND RECREATION AND THE
NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION. THIS
AFTERNOON A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 25-35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT AND TO AROUND 25 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
THE DRY FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN
12PM AND 5PM BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ANY FIRES THAT DO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...AND WITH THE DRY
FUELS BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK AS MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER THAN TODAY. DRY AND SUNNY DAYS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-042145-
EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY...
TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...BURLINGTON...
MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES
1055 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        0            40           0
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      78           54           70
20FTWND AM(MPH)       S  7 G23                  N  9 G18
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 15 G31    SW 12 G28    NW  8 G18
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.06         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                    2
PRECIP BEGIN                       7 PM
PRECIP END                         6 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      23           90           28
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11910                     8120
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 22                     W 12
VENTILATION RATE      245720                    95870

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-042145-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
1055 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        0            50           0
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      77           51           68
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW  09                     NW  9 G18
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 14 G29    SW 12 G29    NW  9 G23
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.08         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                    2
PRECIP BEGIN                       7 PM
PRECIP END                         6 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      22           95           28
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11480                     7810
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 21                     NW 14
VENTILATION RATE      212420                    109530

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

VTZ011-012-019-042145-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
1055 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        0            50           30
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      78           54           71
20FTWND AM(MPH)       LGT/VAR                   NW  8 G18
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 14 G28    SW 11 G29    NW  7 G22
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.06         0.03
PRECIP DURATION                    2            1
PRECIP BEGIN                       8 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   1 PM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      20           89           30
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11160                     8030
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 20                     NW 13
VENTILATION RATE      207160                    99410

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ026-027-087-042145-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...OGDENSBURG...
POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR
1055 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        20           50           0
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      78           50           69
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW  6 G25                 N  6
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 19 G35    SW 13 G33    NW  6
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.08         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       1            2
PRECIP BEGIN          1 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   6 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      25           99           30
HAINES INDEX          5            4            5
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            9880                      6770
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 31                     NW  8
VENTILATION RATE      269950                    72220

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-042145-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID
1055 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE

CLOUD AMOUNT          MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)        0            50           0
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE
MAX/MIN/MAX TEMP      75           48           67
20FTWND AM(MPH)       SW  9 G24                 N  7 G17
20FTWND PM(MPH)       SW 17 G32    SW 15 G29    NW  7 G19
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.10         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                    2
PRECIP BEGIN                       6 PM
PRECIP END                         6 AM
MIN/MAX/MIN RH %      23           100          28
HAINES INDEX          5            5            5
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HGT            11430                     8550
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 24                     W 13
VENTILATION RATE      239540                    109630

REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
70. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.

$$



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