Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051044
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILNA 12 13...USFWS-FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY..BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-20 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (40-50%)
                    WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   13  13  13  28  28  28  46  46  46
WEATHER COV.........                                            SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                                            RW
TSTM COV............                                            SCH
TEMP................62  64  67  71  74  77  80  81  83  84  85  82
RH..................72  73  68  59  55  50  45  42  40  40  39  44
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  15  14  13  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   9
LVORI...............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................11  11  11  21  26  26  22  18  17  20  27  37
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6   6   7   14  25  30  30  30  27  25  28  40

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............64  64  64  69  69  69  68  68  68  62  62  62
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................79  76  74  72  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63
RH..................49  56  62  66  71  73  76  78  84  84  84  84
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 2.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  15  17  16  14  10  8   6   3   5   6   8
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................8   10  11  11  9   7   5   4   3   3   4   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....40  33  18  15  11  7   4   2   1   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3400 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............54  54  54  55  55  55  59  59  59  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................63  63  66  69  72  75  77  79  80  80  80  80
RH..................87  87  78  73  66  62  58  54  52  52  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   9   7   5   2   1   1   1   1   2   5
LVORI...............5   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................10  7   7   9   11  7   4   3   4   6   7   11
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   2   7   7   5   3   2   3   5   8   12



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KRZYWICKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.WILNA.01/AKQ



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