Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FNUS74 KTSA 221219
FWSTSA

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR PERI RX UNIT 2...PEA RIDGE NMP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
719 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BURN SITE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1900 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 1800-2200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP............55  56  58  59  60  61  61
DEWPT...........36  37  39  42  42  42  43
RH..............50  49  50  52  50  50  51
20FT WIND DIR...NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20FT SPD (MPH)..4   6   6   6   5   5   5
20FT GUST(MPH)..10  10  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDS (%)......83  83  83  83  82  81  81
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
MXHT/100(FT AGL)017 019 021 022 022 021 018
TR WIND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
TR WIND SPD(MPH)12  13  13  13  12  12  10
STABILITY.......B   B   B   B   B   B   C
1700FT MIX T (F)59  57  58  59  60  61  61
CHC OF PCPN (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  40
VENT/1000(M^3/S)003 003 004 004 004 003 002

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44.
RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58.
RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-2200 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP............44  44  45  47  50  52  54  55  56  57  58  58
DEWPT...........38  38  38  37  37  38  39  40  40  40  41  42
RH..............78  79  75  68  61  59  57  55  54  53  52  54
20FT WIND DIR...E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20FT SPD (MPH)..6   7   8   9   10  9   9   8   8   8   8   7
20FT GUST(MPH)..10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
CLOUDS (%)......84  83  81  80  79  77  76  74  73  71  71  70
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
MXHT/100(FT AGL)000 000 003 005 008 011 014 017 020 022 022 020
TR WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TR WIND SPD(MPH)9   12  14  16  18  21  22  22  21  20  18  17
STABILITY.......F   F   C   D   C   C   B   B   B   B   B   C
1700FT MIX T (F)58  57  57  56  56  58  61  55  56  57  58  58
CHC OF PCPN (%).50  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
VENT/1000(M^3/S)000 000 001 001 002 003 004 005 006 006 005 005

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...HATFIELD
REQUESTED BY...NOLAN MOORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150422.PERIR.01/TSA






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