Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 051540
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

                     VALID MAY 5 THROUGH MAY 10

   ...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large complex of thunderstorms is currently moving across
portions of the Texas Panhandle. This activity will continue to
move towards the northeast the next few hours. Rainfall amounts
are averaging 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour, within a few of these
storms. During the overnight hours, another complex of
thunderstorms developed and moved over portions of eastern
New Mexico and West Texas (specifically the Texas Panhandle).
Widespread precipitation amounts of 3-5 inches were reported
between Midland and Lubbock. And a few areas across Lynn, Dawson,
and Borden counties, reported rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches in 24
hours. Tahoka, Texas (located in the Texas Panhandle) reported a
24-hour rainfall total of 9.10 inches.

Overall, the large scale pattern will change little over the next 5
days. A series of broad upper level Pacific storms will keep the
WGRFC area under a southwesterly flow aloft through the weekend.
Upper level disturbances embedded in this southwesterly pattern will
help initiate the development of showers and thunderstorms over the
WGRFC area. With deep moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall is
possible in the more organized thunderstorm complexes.

Precipitable Water (PW) values are running 150% to 200% of normal
for the western half of the WGRFC area. Locally heavy rainfall is
expected across Southeast New Mexico and the Texas Rolling
Plains through Tuesday.  As the week progresses, the focus for heavy
rain will shift east toward North Central and Northeast Texas.
However, there are no large scale systems expected to "clear out"
the area.  Even if the focus for heavy rain shifts east, scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for all of the
WGRFC area through the weekend.

At this time, areas of Texas west of Interstate 35 are still
experiencing various stages of drought.  Same goes for most of
New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Rainfall across these areas will
be most beneficial and should help with the ongoing drought.
Overnight some minor rises occurred across the Pecos and
upper Brazos river systems, based on some very heavy rains that
fell right at the river gauge. In general, continued rainfall could
cause some additional minor rises, however widespread moderate or
major flooding is not expected.

We will need to monitor this situation for possible flooding later
this week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of North
Texas and the eastern half of the Texas Panhandle. Lesser amounts
are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, northern
New Mexico and the remainder of the Texas Panhandle.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of Northwest and Central Texas.
Most of this precipitation will impact areas west of I-35.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of Northwest Texas. Lesser amounts
are forecast for portions of Central Texas. Most of this
precipitation will impact areas west of I-35.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 1.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Northwest and Central Texas. Lesser
amounts are forecast for the Big Bend area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. Recent precipitation events have brought drought
relief to parts of Texas.  In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (31%), and about 6% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little
over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(56%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas have
responded some, but many are at or near historical lows for this
time of year.  The rainfall expected over the next five days over
the WGRFC area will likely be heavy enough to produce significant
runoff over roughly the eastern half of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the mainstem of the Neches and
Angelina River system. The tributaries have recovered from the
last flood event, but the water is still slowly working its way
downstream.  Area lakes remain full and flood control reservoirs
continue their releases. The stage on the Neches River near Town
Bluff (TBFT2) is being driven by releases out of B.A. Steinhagen
lake.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend will continue full 2-unit continuous power generation
producing approx 15,000 cfs outflow; therefore, Deweyville (DWYT2)
will remain above minor flood levels through the week

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Livingston continues to remain full and is passing any extra
water from upstream through it`s flood gates. The Elm Fork Trinity
River near Carrollton (CART2) is expected to rise slightly above
action stage as flows upstream have been increased. On the mainstem
downstream both Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) remain high.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Double Mountain Fork Brazos River at Justiceburg (JTBT2) has
responded to very heavy rainfall in the area and has crested
several feet above initial action stage level. It is expected to
fall below bankfull this evening. Additional rainfall in the area
may cause additional flooding. The Navasota River near Normangee
(NGET2) is still above action stage and still slowly receding.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding continues in the Neches and lower Sabine River
basins.  The current storm system is not expected to cause
significant flooding along any mainstem site.  These rains are
expected to provide beneficial totals that will benefit area lakes.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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