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000
FXUS04 KWBC 232208
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
506 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 24/0000 UTC THRU NOV 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF. THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF AXIS/TOTALS
ACRS THE MIDWEST...AND SO ONLY MODEST CHANGES WERE MADE HERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS. ACRS THE
MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER
HANDLE OF THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION PCPN VS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS WARRANTED SOME
WETTER ADJUSTMENTS LOCALLY.
PREV DISC...
...PAC NW...
MODEL QPFS VERY SIMILAR SHOWING LGT PCPN AMTS OVR THE PAC NW AS
SHRTWV PUSHES INTO BC EARLY IN THE PD FOLLOWED BY STRONG HGT
RISES. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE THE LLVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED OVR THE PAC WITH THIS SHRTWV THUS
INHIBITING SGFNT TOTALS. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PD..A WEAK
WAA PCPN EVENT DVLPS AS AN OFFSHORE VORTEX OVR THE NERN PAC SLOWLY
APCHS.
...CNTRL U.S...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH CARVING OUT A MID LVL LO CNTR OVR THE CNTRL
PLAINS TGNT WHICH THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD TMW. WHILE MODELS
DIFFER WITH DETAILS..THEY ALL INDC THE BEST QPF WILL BE ALONG
DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER LO TRACK.
MEANWHILE..THEY ARE ALSO INDCTG THAT MSTR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
ENUF LATER IN THE PD TO RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/MID MS VLY AREA LATER TMW AFTN AND EVNG AS LLVL CNVGNC
ALONG THE ASOCTD CDFNT AND HGT FALLS CONTRIBUTE TO ACTVTY. FOR
THE MOST PART ATTEMPTED TO BLEND MODEL DIFFERENCES OVR BOTH OF THE
ABOVE AREAS GIVEN INABILITY TO CHOOSE BTWN VERY MINOR MAS FIELD
DETAILS.
...TX GULF COASTAL REGION...
CDFNT DROPPING SEWD INTO THIS REGION BY TMW MRNG SHOULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHWRS AIDED BY LLVL ELYS OFF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
MODELS INDC SOME FVBL DIV ALOFT WILL BE AVBL TO AID THE LIFTING
THE PROCESS HERE..THOUGH THE RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT SGFNT PCPN TOTALS. TREND OF GFS WAS TO CUT BACK AMTS
ALONG THE LWR TX COAST FM PREVIOUS RUNS.
...ERN U.S...
MODEL QPFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING PCPN ASOCTD WITH TWO
SHRTWVS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ASOCTD CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE NEW ENG COAST WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV. MODELS APPEAR AT
LEAST IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE 12Z FCST CYCLE TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING PCPN TOTALS OVR SERN NEW ENG FM THE 1ST
SHRTWV..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM REGIONAL. SUSPECT SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE AIDING THE
LIFTING PROCESS HERE AND THEREFORE LEANED TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE GEM REGIONAL FOR THE QPF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST FM
BOTH SHRTWVS. MEANWHILE...LLVL ELYS AND WEAK HGT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VRY LGT TO LGT SHWRS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION EARLY IN THE FCST PD.
DAYS 2/3...
...PAC NORTHWEST...
POTENT ERN PAC SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HT FALLS AND MSTR TOWARDS B.C.
AND THE PAC NW DURING THE PD. PRECIP SHOULD START IN B.C AND
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE
NOT AT ALL AGREEABLE REGARDING EITHER THE SFC LOW OR THE UPR
PATTERN. ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS STRONG/CUTOFF-LOW DEPICTION
ALOFT AND STRONG SFC CYCLONE...SO ITS QPF WAS DISCOUNTED. THE
PREFERRED BLEND WAS NEAR THE 12Z CAN GLBL/ENSEMBLE QPF. THE
PERSISTENT/STRONG MSTR FETCH WILL FOSTER 2-3 INCH AMTS IN THE WA
COASTAL RANGE AND CASCADES...AND AN INCH IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF
WRN WA.
...UPR TO MID MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY AND GTLKS REGION...
A STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE MID
MS VLY TOWARD THE GRT LAKES...AS A DIGGING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
CARVES IN BEHIND TO CLOSE OFF ANOTHER LOW OVER LAKE MI TWD THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY NIGH... PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING
ASSOCIATED WITH COMA HEAD/DYNAMIC COOLING QPF EXPECTED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STAKED LOW AND WAA PRECIP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...BASICALLY FROM ERN MN/NE IA THROUGH WI/MI AND NRN IN/IL.
AS BEFORE...A LARGE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HPC
CHOSE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MAINLY CUT OFF FROM ANY DEEP MSTR SOURCE...BUT THE STRONG
COLD-CORE DYNAMICS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF LIQUID-EQUIV
PRECIP...CENTERED IN WI/UPR GTLKS.
...SOUTHEAST COAST/FLORIDA...
TRAILING CDFNT FROM DAY 1 COASTAL LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH FL ON
DAY 2 HELPING TO TRIGGER SHWRS/TSTMS. MODELS INDICATE A VERY
ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD ENHANCE TOTALS GIVEN THE TROPICAL
POOL OF MSTR. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING MID CONUS TROUGH WILL
HELP INDUCE ANOTHER SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE SAME ABANDONED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THIS WILL DRIVE MSTR INLAND AND
TRIGGER PRECIP ALONG/NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AS FAR NORTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS ON DAY 3. HPC FOLLOWED THE 12Z CAN GLBL/ECMWF
HERE...WITH TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LCLY GREATER.
KORTY/ORRISON/SOWKO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 25/00Z
0.01 539212 535196 535191 534187 530181 528173 525168 522167
520163 518158 509150 503146 498143 490134 484131 478133
476134 477139 481142 485149 490152 493158 487158 482155
476154 473158 474163 478168 480173 483180 485184 487188
490193 490196 485200 481201 471205 466209 461212 452217
451222 453226 453231 452234 448239 443249 443253 440260
437270 436274 438277 442279 444278 450276 458267 465260
469257 472255 475256 482270 489281 496290 500292 504292
508291 513285 516278 521264 522258 521253 519246 515233
514227 512224 508220 505214 506206 512208 515211 518214
520218 521221 524225 529230 534230
0.01 460647 459641 456637 451635 440639 429642 424642 419642
413642 409643 402649 400654 397661 390665 381675 382702
382709 380716 372723 366729 359731 354733 348734 342736
339741 336744 333750 334756 337760 342761 347761 353762
357766 359772 359777 358785 361792 369801 373804 378806
383806 387804 390804 395809 397814 403830 412836 416835
419832 420831 419827 416817 417809 419803 419795 417786
418779 417770 420768 422771 427776 432775 434773 435769
432759 425749 428742 432737 440710 441701 445697 453687
457680 458676 459671 460665 460647
0.01 523899 523893 522888 519882 512871 509868 506865 505860
503850 499847 495846 493847 491850 486861 481887 480892
479894 475898 469903 464906 456907 450907 446907 442903
437894 431887 423879 415873 406868 402866 396864 391863
385865 379868 376871 357884 342896 334903 331906 329911
326917 326920 323926 319930 317930 315927 312926 306927
301927 299927 290925 280930 272934 263941 254946 251947
247950 241958 239962 239967 238975 240989 241995 243998
248007 251010 256012 265016 271016 276014 281013 286014
291013 297012 304004 310997 312988 316976 323969 327966
332968 337973 347972 358968 364968 367969 373971 376974
374979 374985 374991 376996 381003 384006 385009 388012
397016 401019 408018 414017 418013 421009 421004 419000
416994 419989 434976 438975 442970 453964 458962 465961
472966 481974 493973 499969 502966 508956 510942 512935
515931 519921 521911 522903 523899
0.01 302800 302796 300793 294794 283798 272797 269798 267802
270806 269811 264820 263826 265831 269834 274835 278833
282830 288822 297813 300809 302804 302800
0.25 453654 451650 447650 441653 433657 427657 416657 411658
407661 401668 396674 395682 394689 394694 397698 402702
407708 412717 418716 424714 428710 433703 436696 440688
447681 451673 453664 453654
0.25 508278 507273 506272 504268 503266 501264 499261 497259
496258 494256 491253 488256 488260 489264 490266 491268
494272 496276 499279 501282 504283 507282 508278 508278
0.25 521187 520186 518182 518181 515179 513176 510175 507178
505178 506181 506183 509187 511189 511190 514191 517193
520191 521187
0.25 489220 489214 485210 477209 470214 466221 463229 459237
457243 459249 465247 473246 480245 481240 479235 476231
474228 476224 481223 487221 489220
0.25 463937 462930 461928 454925 446925 440923 433920 429915
427905 424896 418892 413889 407886 401885 392887 387888
385891 383894 383899 388905 399914 401916 402921 402924
399928 392940 388954 385962 383970 384980 386990 390996
396998 401996 406989 415979 424975 428972 435968 440962
450952 459942 463937
0.25 299947 287946 271948 264950 258954 253958 250962 247968
245974 248982 252988 255993 259996 264999 272000 278997
282994 284989 283984 283975 285968 287964 295954 299947
0.50 448663 445661 443662 437666 427666 417666 410667 405669
402672 402675 405683 402685 400690 402694 407699 415707
421708 424705 429698 431692 434686 437681 443675 446669
448663
0.50 484218 482213 479212 477212 476212 473215 475218 478218
481219 484218 484218
0.50 476238 476237 473234 470235 467234 465234 464235 463238
463241 466240 468240 469239 472239 475239 476238
0.50 446945 445940 443937 438934 432932 423931 417930 412931
409933 403938 399944 393956 390965 388972 390984 391988
395989 405979 411973 413971 416970 422970 428967 433963
438958 446945
0.50 412902 411898 409896 406896 406895 403896 402897 402901
404904 404905 408906 410905 412902
0.50 275967 273960 267957 259959 254963 252967 250972 252976
256982 259986 265990 269989 272983 273976 274969 275967
1.00 411957 410953 408952 405952 403953 400955 397958 397959
395963 395964 394967 396969 399968 401967 403966 404965
407963 408961 409959 411957
24HR QP VT 26/00Z
0.01 524251 508215 506211 508208 511207 515209 517212 518217
522221 528223 534221 535218 537212 536206 535199 532194
527184 520166 517160 515158 512159 509161 505163 500161
496162 493163 490169 503187 502198 501203 498204 492200
483200 478201 475202 472205 470210 471220 480226 473230
469231 466231 462232 461236 462242 463247 462255 453272
450279 449283 448287 450293 456300 465304 469306 469313
471317 475320 482319 489318 497314 503309 508303
0.01 515902 514895 513893 505893 499896 493901 492898 492892
494883 496877 497871 498866 499855 499846 498835 497829
495824 493817 485802 476790 468781 464776 461772 457766
452762 446759 439757 434756 428755 418752 407749 401746
395746 391751 390757 393763 386764 380766 373766 369764
364760 361758 358759 356763 357768 362773 367776 371779
372785 372792 366795 363798 357801 353803 350806 344809
342812 342815 341824 339826 340830 342838 347840 353838
364828 368816 372812 377809 384805 386799 383791 392787
397786 401785 404783 405780 404775 404768 410769 416770
420769 426770 429772 430777 429784 426788 414790 409795
407800 401806 395810 391817 390824 383829 380833 374843
371847 369848 366853 363858 358863 347870 348875 347879
344881 332889 328893 325898 324902 326904 331903 341897
354892 366889 377889 383890 387892 392896 395900 399906
401914 403926 405937 408943 412949 419951 425952 438951
443951 450952 456959 465974 474984 483997 489006 494014
500017 504018 511018 514015 515008 515003 512994 509989
498976 493969 490962 487954 485948 486943 491940 498936
504930 508922 513911 515902
0.01 456675 456671 454668 451666 450666 447664 446664 443665
441667 441669 441673 444676 445677 447678 450680 453680
455677 456675
0.01 494149 492144 489140 486135 480135 478132 475131 472131
469135 468138 468140 471144 476141 480141 484143 486147
488151 491151 494149
0.01 347764 346761 342760 333762 326768 320774 311779 304781
285786 277785 270786 259790 250794 245796 243799 239804
236812 235821 236829 239838 246839 253840 260843 264848
268860 272871 275878 282883 284883 287881 294874 302863
307854 309846 311838 315832 325817 329810 332801 338784
340779 343774 348768 347764
0.01 276964 276961 270960 262963 252965 247966 241969 238975
243983 244992 244998 245001 247003 253003 258000 264996
269989 269983 268977 271969 276964
0.25 524261 521254 516244 509230 505222 503218 499216 494212
488215 488228 486233 483236 477234 476233 473237 473249
472257 469262 462277 462285 465289 468293 480296 481303
488306 494305 500302 511293
0.25 471828 470817 468811 466807 462801 457797 453799 451802
450809 444815 441821 443827 447834 449842 447845 445845
438844 434844 430845 425848 421853 418859 417865 417884
418895 419904 421909 424914 430916 437913 442915 444919
445926 447933 451932 453931 456925 460917 465912 471908
467905 463898 461890 461882 462874 464854 468842 471832
471828
0.25 322798 320792 316788 311787 304790 301794 296797 290798
286797 276795 271794 265794 259797 254798 249800 245804
244814 244820 246825 255828 264829 270827 274824 277822
278825 277830 278842 280846 283846 287847 293846 298843
303834 308822 310817 314812 319805 322798
0.50 522263 520256 516248 510236 503224 498219 494219 492221
490231 488235 486237 480239 478240 477243 477249 476256
472265 470271 469275 469278 471281 473284 480285 484288
486292 488298 494300 498299 504295 512288 516284
0.50 444874 443869 439864 438865 437869 438872 439876 439880
433881 430882 429884 426889 425894 425902 428906 432904
436898 439896 442892 443885 443879 444874
0.50 313795 312792 308792 304796 299802 296805 292806 286804
281800 276798 271800 272804 274806 281808 284808 287810
288815 288820 287826 288833 292838 295838 297836 303824
308811 313799 313795
0.50 263813 262810 261810 259811 258812 258815 258817 258818
259821 261820 262820 262817 263814 263813
1.00 519274 520268 520263 518256 511242 503231 500227 496224
494226 492236 490238 487239 484242 483245 480253 479263
479272 482276 487278 490282 494289 497292 500292 506289
514281 519274
1.50 519268 519264 517258 511246 506236 503233 498229 493241
487241 485246 483253 482263 483267 485272 487274 495282
497286 500289 507285 514277 517273 519268
2.00 516272 517268 517264 515257 510247 505238 500233 496236
496240 495244 492244 490243 486246 484254 484259 485267
488271 496278 498284 500286 503285 507283 510279 516272
3.00 513271 515265 514259 510250 506244 504242 501242 501251
496250 489246 488249 487255 489265 494272 499278 502280
508277 513271
4.00 513266 513261 511256 507249 504257 499257 497255 491250
490252 490257 492262 494267 497272 499276 502277 504277
507273 510270 513266
5.00 505272 506268 504265 501263 499260 496258 494258 495263
495264 497269 500273 502275 505272
6.00 503271 503270 500269 500270 503272 503271
24HR QP VT 27/00Z
0.01 540202 535190 533184 530180 518167 510159 504156 499158
496159 493163 487170 486175 487180 489186 491189 490194
482197 474201 471204 468209 465213 461214 453217 452220
452223 456227 451230 446231 443233 436240 431236 425231
419229 414229 411231 404236 400236 396238 396242 396246
397251 399262 400271 403279 405284 409289 417293 426296
434297 444295 451293 457288 464282 471275 479270 486272
496277 508284 516282 524252 522247 520242 517238 515233
512227 510222 508216 505211 503206 507204 512208 515210
521213 526217 529219 533220 535220
0.01 470679 469674 466671 464669 461667 457665 453664 447664
443665 439670 439675 442679 447682 451685 454687 459687
463687 467685 469684 470679
0.01 502817 500806 499801 497795 495787 493782 489776 485774
479768 469763 460760 457755 454754 448757 443761 438766
435772 432783 428786 423788 418787 416787 404786 396789
393791 391796 389801 389805 390808 394812 398816 393826
393831 395834 397835 399836 400840 396853 396857 398860
401863 404866 407873 409887 407894 405900 403913 405920
408928 412936 416940 419946 422949 427950 432950 438948
446945 453941 457938 462935 467931 475924 482918 491906
496897 499886 500879 501874 501868 502864 502855 503850
502845 503839 502817
0.01 419699 417697 413696 411697 410697 408699 407699 406703
406704 407708 409711 412711 415709 417706 417705 419702
419699
0.01 419747 418742 416741 410740 404740 400738 397739 390744
385748 380750 377753 376756 377758 380761 386763 393762
399763 406763 414758 418752 419747
0.01 363752 361745 357742 351742 337746 327750 321752 308759
293770 283779 279783 274785 270786 265786 263786 259787
252791 243796 239801 237805 236812 236820 238827 242831
248835 255838 261840 267840 273838 283837 292834 299830
304825 310819 316815 326804 338791 342786 344781 349771
354766 358762 362755 363752
0.25 521269 519265 518263 517261 514259 511259 510260 510265
512270 512271 515273 517273 518273 521269
0.25 528198 526193 523188 522187 521185 518182 518181 515178
513176 510175 509175 507176 505178 505183 506187 506188
508192 509193 511195 513197 516198 519199 522200 525200
528198
0.25 507244 505230 502219 498210 496207 492207 483205 476209
470217 463221 461225 462229 458232 449234 446238 445241
440252 438257 437263 439268 442271 446273 451273 459272
465269 473264 478260 485254 489255 492253 495249 500247
507244
0.25 477853 477848 475844 471843 466846 463849 455855 447860
441863 436864 433866 432871 432882 433889 432895 426913
426918 428921 434924 437922 442919 447911 450903 452893
454888 457884 461884 464886 467888 470886 474876 476855
477853
0.25 422242 423238 422237 419236 416240 418241 421242 422242
0.25 355753 351751 346752 341756 339758 334763 332766 330770
332772 337772 343770 346765 349762 353757 355753
0.25 290809 289802 287800 278799 270797 263797 259795 254796
247802 242809 241813 242818 246823 249824 254822 259819
268820 276820 286816 290812 290809
0.50 501238 500228 499221 494214 488212 484210 480210 478211
476216 472222 468227 461233 454235 449238 445253 447261
450264 457266 462265 467262 472259 479251 490244 493239
499239 501238
0.50 453871 453867 451866 448868 446869 443871 442876 444879
445879 447878 448877 450875 452872 453871
0.50 351755 350755 347755 344757 342759 341760 340763 340765
341765 344764 346762 347761 348759 350756 351755
0.50 252808 252805 251805 248805 246807 244810 244811 244814
245817 247818 249817 251815 251814 252811 252809 252808
1.00 495226 493223 492221 490219 487218 485218 486223 486224
489227 492228 495227 495226
1.00 485236 485232 480228 477229 471232 467234 464235 460238
457240 453244 453250 458251 464252 467252 472250 476247
480245 483240 485236
1.50 480239 480235 479234 476233 475233 473234 471236 469240
466239 466240 469241 472243 475243 476243 478242 480239
$$
