Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 272008
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/27/15 2008Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1945Z JS
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LOCATION...S MISSISSIPPI/S LOUISIANA/SE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...DISCUSSION CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF SE TX/S LA/S MS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER STRONG COMPLEX WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE W GULF COAST REGION
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FARTHER TO THE S AND WELL OFFSHORE. IN ITS WAKE,
THE TEMPORARY STABILIZING INFLUENCE HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH
GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS SHOWING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER
SE TX EXTENDING INTO THE S HALF OF LA. DESPITE THE LACK OF AN ONSHORE
SFC COMPONENT (THOUGH A 20Z SFC OB JUST OFF THE SW LA/SE TX COAST
SHOWS SFC FLOW MAY BE RETURNING), THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARTLY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LOWERING OF CINH HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
ROUGHLY BEGINNING NEAR 850MB AND EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST THE 700MB LEVEL
PER ANALYSIS. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN OUT OF THE SW HAS RESULTED IN LINEAR SEGMENTS ALIGNING THEMSELVES
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW WHICH IS NOW PROMOTING CELL TRAINING FROM SE
TX ACROSS S CENT LA. WITH PROFILER DATA SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
AT 850MB, MOISTURE IS  RETURNING ONCE AGAIN TO THE REGION PER BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AND RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATING SLUG OF NEAR 2"
TO EVEN OVER 2" PW VALUES LURKING JUST OFF THE SE TX /SW LA COAST.
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OUTLOOK THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, CERTAINLY SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM FAR SE TX ACROSS THE BORDER AND OVER THE S HALF OF
LA AS RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TRAINS OVER AREA AFFECTED BY
EARLIER MCS.  DO EXPECT THE SOURCE REGION OF GREATER CAPE/INSTABILITY
RESIDING TO THE S AND ESPECIALLY SW OF THE CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION TO
BE TAPPED FOR MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION FROM EXTREME SE
TX AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF FAR S LA DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AIDED BY LARGER SCALE FORCING FROM THE SLOW APPROACH OF
LARGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER W TX AND FROM PRONOUNCED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ON THE NOSE OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH HAS CONNECTION TO
TROPICAL E PAC. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT,
BUT ENOUGH FACTORS ARE PRESENT TO WARRANT CONCERN.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3142 9325 3116 9086 3017 9003 2922 9052 2911 9250
2914 9453 3090 9527
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