Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS48 KWNS 250824
SWOD48
SPC AC 250822

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH EVOLUTION OF SRN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
EJECTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME FRAME.  ECMWF IS
NOTABLY FASTER WITH EJECTING TROUGH THAN THE GFS.  IT APPEARS ONE
PRIMARY REASON IS THE HANDLING OF RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SUBSEQUENTLY KICKING TROUGH EWD AT
DIFFERENT SPEEDS.  DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...LOW LATITUDE
SPEED MAX WILL LIKELY INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY REDUCING INLAND INSTABILITY AND REDUCING
SEVERE THREAT.  FOR THESE REASONS WILL NOT INTRODUCE 15 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.