Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 272309 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 609 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 THE FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURES WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT POP FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TRAILING END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BUT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE QUITE LIMITED. UPPER RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE TO MODELS IN THE LATER PERIODS THIS SPRING AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE AGAIN. WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 12Z MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN COULD TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A BETTER CHANCE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE DIFFERENT FEATURES AT THIS POINT SO SLIGHT POPS DOMINATE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...KERN

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