Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 012330 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 SEVERE WATCH 15 WAS ISSUED EARLIER VALID UNTIL 06Z. STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. BELIEVE THIS MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z. MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL. BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT. FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES. DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER KOFK AT TAF ISSUANCE. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE EAST OF KOFK BY 01Z. KLNK/KOMA WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. STORMS ARRIVE AT KLNK BY 03Z AND KOMA BY 04Z. STORMS AFFECT THESE TWO LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN VFR AFTERWARD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEWALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.