Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 041156 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 656 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX IN THE POLAR JET ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO...AND AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER MEXICO. MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WERE FAIRLY WEAK AT OUR LATITUDE BUT SHEAR THE PAST FEW EVENINGS HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WI ACROSS PARTS OF IA...SERN NE...KS AND THEN BACK INTO SERN CO. COOL HIGH PRES HAD BUILT INTO ND. DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS SD BUT RANGED TO THE 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS WERE STILL ONGOING NEAR THE NE/MO/KS BORDER AREA AND OVER SCNTRL NE AS OF 08Z AND SPOTTY ELEVATED SHRA OR WEAK TSRA WERE NOTED FROM PARTS OF NERN NE INTO NWRN IA. AVAILABLE HRRR/RAP/HIGH RES ARW MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS LIFT INCREASES NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THEN THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST SPOTS... PARTS OF SERN NE AND FAR SWRN IA MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SEEMS REASONABLE WITH OUR SRN COUNTIES IN THE SLGT RISK AREA. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR NOW TORNADO POTENTIAL SEEMS FAIRLY LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN LIFT UP INTO SERN NE...CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...MAY HELP LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT MORESO ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY. BUT THE FOCUS FOR STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN TWO AREAS ON TUESDAY...TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR NORTHEAST. STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH MODEST MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. BY 00Z THURSDAY A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB SHOULD BE NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST EXTENDING FROM MT DOWN INTO ERN KS. THAT SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE POINT WHERE WE CAN GO DRY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DIG TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY... THEN EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY IS PROBABLY GOING TO BY DRY AS MOST ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY FORMED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 14-15Z. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PEARSON/MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...PEARSON

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