Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 030515 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 EARLY MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVERNIGHT IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. FORCING FROM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD SUSTAINED ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER FULL SUN WITH A POOL OF MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. WESTERLIES REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES WHILE A WEAK/BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE CU FIELD IS NOW SHOWING ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR/CONVECTION ALLOWING ENSEMBLES SHOW TSTMS... WHICH SHOULD LIKELY BE HIGH BASED...DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND SHIFTING EAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY AND BULK 0-6KM SHEAR LOOK MARGINAL BUT WE ARE LACKING ANY STRONG FORCING FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL JET AXIS TO OUR EAST. STRONG HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KTS...HOWEVER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PULSE STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE KS/NE BORDERS AND EVENTUALLY STALL EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS QUITE LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH HEAVY RAIN QUITE POSSIBLE AS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AND PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR 2.00". .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...THE SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NWD AS WELL. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID WEEK...STRONG WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHAT TIME PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AND TRY TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING ON PCPN CHANCES AS BEST WE CAN IN FUTURE FORECASTS. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 LOOK FOR SCT TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR KOFK BY MID AFTERNOON THEN MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEAST TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TSRA. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 1000-3000 FEET AGL.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE

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