Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 240841 CCA AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 341 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA. AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL. DEE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80 AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEWALD .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME. CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DERGAN

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