Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 160450 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1150 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015 LARGE SCALE PATTERN PER WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES EXTENDING ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH A LARGE CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SFC...LLVL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VLY REGION. RUC13 SHOWING BNDRY LYR MOISTURE ADV CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE CWA. TSTM DEVELOPMENT PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER CNTRL KS/S- CNTRL NEB LATER THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET...THEN EXPAND NEWD INTO THE WRN CWA SOMETIME AFT MIDNIGHT AS UPGLIDE INCREASES ALONG 300K SFC. PLAN ON ONLY MAKING MINOR TWEAKS AT THIS POINT AS GOING FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE DEPICTING POPS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS IMPACTS AS IT SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED ON TOP OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE SIDE SFC LOW REFLECTION IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BROAD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS BROAD SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING CONTINUED BROAD SCALE VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETTER ORGANIZES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING. PW`S WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1" THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...WE WILL HAVE A FEW INTERMITTENT BREAKS BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT WITH SUCH SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. BY MID DAY SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA...ALLOWING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF REALLY WRAPS THIS SYSTEM UP...WITH NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 65KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO APPROACH THE 0C MARK OF THE LATEST ECMWF SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT CAREFULLY FOR ANY CHANGE OVER IN PCPN TYPES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY PUT TEMPERATURES INTO THE BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY. A FEW MINOR WAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW PROVIDING SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015 GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. THE BNK-OVC DECKS SHOULD CONT THROUGH THE DAY ON THU AS WELL BUT INCREASE TO VFR /FL0040-050/ BY MID TO LATE MRNG. WE WILL CONT TO LEAVE THE TAFS DRY AT THE MOMENT AS PRECIP TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MRNG SHRA AT KLNK...AND THEN SOME ISO LATE AFTN -SHRA AT ALL SITES BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS...GENERALLY BELOW 12 KT...WILL CONT THROUGH THU EVNG.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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