Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 042038 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 338 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 RADAR TREND CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED PCPN LIFTING OUT OF KS AND INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH HRLY SATL PCPN ESTIMATES BTWN 17Z-18Z SHOWING AN AREA OF HALF AN INCH OR SO JUST WEST OF THE CWA. PCPN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH STALLED SFC BNDRY WHICH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER INTO SRN IA. LATEST RAP13 CONTINUING TO SHOW INGREDIENTS REQUIRED FOR HEFTY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN PARTICULAR...FOCUS IS OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW//BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE//PW AOA 1.5"//KI 40...WILL PHASE WITH MAX OMEGA WITHIN AREA OF RELATIVELY DEEP WARM CLOUD LYR DEPTH. WITH RAP13 MUCAPES HOVERING AROUND 1500J/KG...SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE...IF NOT PROBABLE...THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER THE EXTREME SRN CWA COULD RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM .50"-.75". REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES/CONCENTRATION OF LLVL MOISTURE/MAX LYR THETA-E DIFF WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 BY TUESDAY 12Z...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO PUSH NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT WASHES OUT. ALTHOUGH TUESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A RAIN OUT FOR ALL AREAS...WE DO THINK THAT ON AND OFF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IN THE MEANTIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EJECT NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS HEALS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WAVE LOOKS STRONGER AND ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS WE COULD HAVE AN ACTIVE MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY MAKE FOR COOLER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS ACTIVITY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MOST OF NEB...AND EXPECTED ACTIVITY CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU THIS EVENING OVER ERN NEB. ALL THIS IN PART TO POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH STALLED SFC BNDRY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER INTO SRN IA. GIVEN THIS...HAVE COVERED ALL TERMINALS WITH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TEMPO GROUPS IN ANTICIPATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING ANY TSRA. AFTN MIDNIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER ERN NEB. IN ADDITIONS...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A TS APPROACHING OR BECOMING SVR INVOF KLNK DURING THIS TIME. FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIODS IN AN && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE

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