Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 040523 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1223 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 TSTMS WILL LINGER MAINLY IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 1 KM AGL VEERS AND WEAKENS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WITH SOME SCT TO ISOLD STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S POOLING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL BE LACKING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY REAL ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY JUST A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME..THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT IMPULSES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE WITH PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IOWA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY GIVING THE REGION A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE BASE MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRONG WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THETA-E AXIS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50" THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ACTIVE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE AS WELL WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF TSRA. NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AT KLNK THEN BY AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND KOMA AND SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN TSRA. DID NOT MENTION SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER TAFS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...SMITH

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