Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 070002 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 702 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 SEVERE STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD 30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS EXPAND EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY IN WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR ACTIVITY THAT MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST FROM THE EXISTING WATCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MODEL QPFS ARE ALSO QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. WPC IS ALSO CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES UNLESS AMOUNTS BECOME EXCESSIVE. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SEVERAL HOUR DRY PERIOD LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSH IN TO THE MID 70S...AND COULD DEVELOP STORMS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THOSE STORMS AS WELL SINCE RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ALONG AND AREA THAT GETS A CONSIDERABLE SOAKING TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR FRIDAY BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION THAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN LINGERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT LEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL CONVECT ALONG IT...OR PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT EAST OF OUR AREA. THEN DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECTS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS/WIDESPREAD PCPN ACTIVITY LIFTING ACROSS ERN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT TSRA TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING WITH SHRA THEN AFT MIDNIGHT TILL ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 12Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LOW END VFR CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEE

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